Stumbling block on way to agreement with Iran: senators' "rebellion"

A "rebellion" of senators is threatening the temporary agreement between the six powers and Iran, according to which Tehran will take steps to limit its nuclear plan in exchange for relief from international sanctions imposed on it. Yesterday (Sunday), the parties announced they had decided to start implementing the agreement, but many factors in Washington say that the way to implementation is strewn with mines and the agreement is far from a fait accompli.

The biggest obstacle will probably be the formation of a veto-proof majority in the Senate for a bill which will worsen sanctions against Iran if it does not comply with the terms of the agreement. Tehran announced several times in the past months, that if such law is accepted it will withdraw from the agreement and deny any understandings reached during negotiations with it.

Following pressure from AIPAC, the pro- Israeli lobby in Washington and other Jewish organizations, a double- party majority was formed in the Senate for the bill. A large part of the supporters are Republicans, but Democrats joined them too. According to a recent count, 59 senators announced their support for a tightening of sanctions. U.S. President Barack Obama repeated his threat last night, that he would veto such a bill, but "Wall Street Journal" reported today (Monday), that 67 senators will support the introduced legislation, that is a veto -proof majority (two-thirds of the 100 Senators can sterilize a presidential veto). The paper attributes the statement to senators who support the initiative.

Legislators who support the tightening of sanctions argue that the agreement with Iran does not limit sufficiently its capabilities to manufacture nuclear weapons, and that only stronger sanctions will push the Ayatollah regime to give up nuclear weapons. Obama's Administration opposes this view and this way a major political confrontation between the White House and the Congress began to form, and will probably reach its peak in the coming weeks.

The potential to prevent the veto gives the struggle in Washington an historical importance. The possibility that Iran will realize its threat, and withdraw from the Geneva process, drives the government to sharpen his warnings against such a scenario. On Thursday, the White House said that proponents of more stringent sanctions should admit the fact that such a move would move the United States to a path of war.

"If some lawmakers want the U.S. to take military action, they should be honest with the public in the U.S. and declare that in all sincerity," said the release of the National Security Council issued in Huffington Post. "If this is not so, it is unclear why any legislator would support a bill that has the potential to put an end to diplomacy and increase the chances of a situation in which the United States will have to choose between military options and a green light for Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons."

The final version of the bill for stricter sanctions is not final, but one of the versions which are now going around in the Senate includes a non-binding section phrased with the following words: If Israel would take military action stemming from a legitimate need to defend itself against the nuclear weapons plan of Iran, the U.S. needs to stand alongside Israel and provide it with diplomatic, military and economic assistance, subject to U.S. law and the responsibility of the Congress to authorize the use of military force (American), to support the Israeli government in its efforts to defend its territory, its citizens and its very existence."

A coalition of Republicans and Democrats senators, which is constantly growing, supports more stringent sanctions. Its members claim that the mere existence of a threat of landing worse sanctions than that experienced so far by Iran, will drive the decision-makers in Tehran to adhere to the agreement and implement it carefully.

"I fear the government policy (regarding Iran) will bring either to Iranian nuclear weapons development or an Israeli attack on Iran," said Senator Mark Kirk, a Republican from Illinois, to the journal. "It is time that the Senate will trust the two- party bill which relies on common sense, and has the support of 59 senators."

The leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate, Harry Reid, an ally of the White House, has no plan to raise the bill for stricter sanctions to a vote. However, given the robust two-party support of the initiative, it is unclear how long he will be able to withstand the pressures. At the same time, pressure from Jewish groups for lawmakers who have not yet announced their support of the initiative, continues. Against this background, there is a big chance that the bill for stricter sanctions will indeed be accepted, and Iran will realize its threatened, and withdraw from the agreement with the six world powers. The Israeli government not see that as a major disaster.

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