Prepare your ID's: elections are coming up. The winners, losers and everything in between

With all due respect to the repeated statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his government was going to fill its days, at 20:00pm he will have to admit his mistake to the nation and microphones - and announce early elections.

Surprising? Actually, not really.

It was on May 6th, 14th Sivan, when Netanyahu was with members of the Likud and counted the reasons that led him to the conclusion that early elections are inevitable ahead of them. The next morning the Knesset worked on approving the law for dismissal of the Knesset and apparently everything had matured for early elections. The major differences revolved around their dates: Elul, a date which troubled the haredi parties, or just after.

In fact, the conclusions which brought Netanyahu 'then' to have early elections are the ones that bring him to have them earlier now. The bi-annual budget is coming to an end, and one has to apply a new budget - difficult, painful and cutting - so why should he be dragged into such a saga and be hated by the nation groaning with local supermarket groceries or the meter of a fuel pump? After all, even if he managed to charm and pass a responsible budget - what will he gain? Three - four more months in power?

After all, the end of 2013 requires elections according to the law, whatever may be. Summer session management in light of an approaching election is similar to managing an animal circus performance - each party will try to pull its achievements.

Lieberman was trying, obviously, to pass anti - religious laws to complete all failing earlier sessions; Shas and Yahadut Hatorah will try to create, obtain and present financial achievements – either substantial or virtual; Steinitz and his loyal officials will lay fingers on the gradually bursting dam. Which means that the winter session, in any case, will end Bibi's current reign.

So why not be a little early and get a short election campaign on a 'clean' background?

Dream of 30 seats

There is no dispute that the combination of Kadima in the government, the next night when finally the dissolution of the Knesset was not approved, was an unfortunate accident to all participants. If Bibi thought of a 'weak Mofaz' and of navigating him like a puppet on a string, he soon realized that behind Mofaz are powerful forces that would not allow him to give in.

Lior Horev placed his prestige on him, MK Yohanan Plesner built his future on him, in short, Mofaz did not act like one willing to reach compromises and arrangements, to achieve success of the Tal Law passed unanimously by 94 votes, and do not blame Bibi, as 'everyone' was in favor.

Soon the prime minister had to pack up the Plesner committee and break it apart to pieces, and then adopt the report of the committee dispersed and try to mend the tears by the Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon, and again to disperse the participants and admit that there is no solution. Reluctantly Mofaz was pushed out, after eating the smelly fish he also paid their full price. He was humiliated, crashed in the polls, but along with him he dragged Netanyahu downwards- though much less powerfully.

Now, when he desperately wants to get 30 seats in the elections - but it's just not sure it would happen, Netanyahu is forced to open an election campaign which no one knows how it would end. We all remember the full confidence of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir who brought the elections of '92 earlier and found himself crushed against Yitzhak Rabin, while he threw on the way the 15-year reign of the Likud to the historical dustbin. No one is assuring Netanyahu that he will not have a similar trauma. As to the results of the ballot - even Nathan Eshel, his political acrobat, has no recipe that guarantees victory.

In order to create the appearance of "I did everything to try and get a budget", and clip coupons from the Center crowd of Israel, Netanyahu summoned the heads of the coalition factions.

He first invited the heads of Shas. Chairman of the movement, Interior Minister Eli Yishai said that he will not support decrees which will include budget cuts in child allowances. Netanyahu wrote, issued press releases, and grinned with satisfaction.

This is exactly what he wanted to hear. This is what he heard from the heads of Yahadut Hatorah, the Finance Committee chairman Moshe Gafni and Deputy Health Minister Yaakov Litzman: 'No to cuts in allowances'. How nice to go to an election campaign under the slogan "I wanted so much to achieve a balanced budget, but the ultra-Orthodox took care of their many children". This is the way of fighting back Yair Lapid. 'In order not to cut down for the poor strata, and to not give in to extortion of the Orthodox, I preferred to declare the elections', Bibi will say, and thereby will cut the wings of the social celebrity - Labor Party chairlady, Shelly Yachimovich.

And the Hareidim, why should they have an election now? Gafni and Maklev's will have domestic troubles, Yishai's troubles from Hakablan 28 (Aryeh Deri, remember the holiday interview in which he told of the spirit of mission he is imbued with?) are great - and shouldn't they close their eyes and accept this or that cut at the price of political survival?

"Bibi did not really want to hear our views on the cuts, the conversation was perfunctory, it seemed entirely to 'rotate' us and especially the media," one of the participants related their feelings. "He is determined to call an election, and the rest is just one big show," said another.

A moment after Netanyahu will declare the announcement, accompanied probably by the end of legislation to dissolve the Knesset which will be held next Monday, a difficult election campaign will start. On the background the American electoral campaign will star. Barack Obama's victory will probably cut Netanyahu's victory. Mitt Romney's victory might improve his situation.

On the background also will star the Iranian threat about which Bibi talked much (and what about the red line drawn with red felt pen so beautifully? Will it wait until after the end of the elections and the forming of a government? The red pen will tell). On the background will also be the Tal Law, Netanyahu's stooping to the Haredim as the media will draw it (True, he wanted to cut their allowances down, but what about the guys who continue to study Torah with the encouragement of Bibi? Wanted in interview: Yohanan Plesner and/or Yair Lapid). The fuel price, the VAT which surged suddenly, and the unemployment situation – will all be at the background too. How many times could Bibi repeat the mantra "Just let's not be like Greece'?

Do not believe the politicians' declarations that they are guarding your children's allowances with all their power. This is not true. No one gave them a free choice about it, they are used like disposables designed to be thrown into the garbage. If only they could, they would be grinding their teeth and forgoing. This is exactly what they will do if and when there will be a part (excess surplus?) in Bibi's next government or in Yachimovich's - agree to cut downs, painful as they may be.

After all someone has to pay the price for the deficit here, and do not expect a prime minister who is not part of the Hareidi parties to worry about us more than he cares about the people who chose him. Bibi wants elections. He has no point in delaying them by a few months, and the rest is history.

In the offices of various political parties they are already preparing the jingles of the approaching election campaign. Watch out for the stories of the Arabian Nights on what each of them did for the nation, prepare your identity cards and get ready to vote. And influence.

'בחדרי' גם ברשתות החברתיות - הצטרפו!