US mid-election; gloomy forecasts for Obama

USA Democrats forge themselves for disappointment at the end of the midterm elections to the House, for about a third of the Senate and 36 state governors, to be held today (Tuesday) in 435 election districts, in 50 states.

All polls and most analyses predict that Republicans will win at least six seats, the minimum they need to achieve control of the Senate, the most important sector of the election. But Democratic leaders, and surprisingly some of the most important US commentators say is still too early to give up.

Their message: it's too early to boast a victory. They remind that Mitt Romney and his Republican establishment, were convinced that Barack Obama will fall to their feet in the presidential election in 2012; Where is Romney and where is Obama in 2014?

Seemingly it is very simple arithmetic: Nine Countries, out of 36 that are supposed to choose senators, are considered competitive; in seven of them, serving Democratic senators are struggling to keep their seat. Unfortunately, all these seven countries voted for Romney in 2012.

These senators were expected, therefore, to march in face of the Republican strong winds even if Obama's popularity was soaring. The fact that the rate of those satisfied with the presidency is hovering just around 40%, the fate of almost all US presidents during their second terms, reveals the seven unhappy Democrats to hurricane storms of the rival party.

Still, Bob Schiffer, veteran political commentator of CBS, who is considered the dean of analysts in Washington, said last night: "It is true that most analyses indicate that the Republicans will win a sufficient number of seats to give them control of the Senate. But I must also say this: I am not ready to bet the results. The electorate is in the worst mood I have ever seen. Voters are angry about everything. Nothing works, in their opinion. They do not like the President, but the Congress they like even less. Who knows, they might even decide they do not want to vote. I, for one, can not tell; I'd rather wait for real results."

His caution may stem from several calculations, showing that there is a 15% chance that the two parties will come out of the elections with 50 seats each, namely equality. In this case, the Senate will remain in the hands of the Democrats, because the Vice President is the President of the Senate and has the 101th vote, the decisive one.
But it's hard to ignore the ringing bells of the polls, which has become more intense as the opening date of polling stations approaches (in most electoral districts - at 6 am, 1 pm Israel time). The prediction model of the "Washington Post" gives Republicans a 93% chance to take control of Senate.

Nate Silver's model, the genius statistician who accurately predicted Romney's defeat two years ago, gives Republicans 73%. "New York Times" makes do with 68%. Depending on the polls, Republicans have a chance to get a majority of 51 seats, 52 and even 53 (now Democrats hold 55 seats (including seats of two independents who vote with the Democrats) and Republicans have 45.

And yet, a new poll initiated by the "Wall Street Journal" and NBC found almost complete equality between supporters of the two parties at the national level: 46% of respondents were satisfied with the Republicans control of both houses of Congress; 45% were interested that this control be entrusted to the Democrats.

How can one explain the contrast between this figure and what appears to be seemingly an almost certainty of a Republican takeover of Congress? Simple, senators are not elected in national elections. They are elected in states. As fate would have it's actually now the turn of Democratic lawmakers in states which now prefer Republicans. If senators were going to other states to be elected, the Republicans would not even dream of taking over the Senate.

In addition: surveys in seven competitive states show that the races in some of them are close to the point where the differences between Democrats and Republicans are not statistically significant. For example, a survey of the University of Quinnipiac, Iowa, one of the competitive states, finds complete equality between the Democratic candidate, Bruce Briley and the Republican candidate, Jony Ernest, who promised voters that she castrate the politicians in Washington as she castrated pigs on the family farm. Until last week she enjoyed a 7% advantage. Races tightened in Louisiana, Georgia and Colorado as well.

Who knows, Vice President Joe Biden probably thinks, maybe not all is lost. Thus, in an interview with CNN, 24 hours before the opening of the polls, he declares: the Senate will remain in the hands of Democrats. But, as one of the most experienced politicians in Washington, Biden prefers not to burn bridges and at a first signal to Republicans he says that Democrats will be willing to compromise if the worst happens.

"Towards 2016 (presidential election year), the Republicans will have to decide whether they want to be in control or to give it up," Biden said in an interview with CNN. "If they stop sticking hurdles before anything, they will find that the Democrats are willing to compromise."

However, despite the drama which characterizes the coverage of elections, in practice a large part of Americans have no interest in, or very little interest in elections, as is customary in the midterm elections, deprived of the excitement that characterizes the presidential election. It is clearly evident that voter turnout will be very low, again, as usual in mid-term elections.

Many voters came to the right conclusion, that the election results now will not change much. The Congress is already paralyzed, and the Democrats were not able to promote initiatives in the Senate because of the Republicans' persistent blockages. If Republicans will control the Senate, the paralysis will not wear off. This time, Democrat lawmakers will be the ones to put up obstacles.

Republicans will try, of course, to eliminate the health insurance reforms, initiated by Obama, but their failure is assured because of a certain veto of the President. Even if the Republicans take over the Senate, the next two years will be like the last two years.

'בחדרי' גם ברשתות החברתיות - הצטרפו!